Academician Aganbegyan named the main problem of the Russian economy. Academician Aganbegyan named the main problem of the Russian economy Education and scientific career

07.01.2024

Professor of the Department of Economics of the Oil and Gas Industry, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Education:

Graduated from the Moscow State Economic Institute, 1955, political economy

Academic degree:

Doctor of Economic Sciences, 1963

Academic title:

Professor

Experience:

1955-61 – State Committee on Labor and Wages, Deputy Head of the Consolidated Economic Department.
1961-85 – Institute of Economics and Organization of Industrial Production of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Head of Laboratory, Director (since 1967), Member of the Presidium of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences (since 1966).
1970-85 – Economic magazine “ECO”, Editor-in-Chief.
1985-89 – Commission for the Study of Productive Forces and Natural Resources (KEPS) of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Chairman.
1986-90 – Member of the Presidium of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Academician-Secretary of the Department of Economics of the USSR Academy of Sciences.
1990-2002 – Academy of National Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation, Rector.
2002-present – Head of the department of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (Academy of National Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation - name changed since 2010).
Academician of a number of foreign academies, Honorary Doctor of a number of universities in the USA, England, Spain, South Korea, Poland, etc.
Honorary President of the International Economic Association, Honorary Member of the World Econometric Society.
In 1964 he was elected a corresponding member of the USSR Academy of Sciences;
In 1974 - full member of the USSR Academy of Sciences.

Training:

PC courses, “Electronic information and educational environment of the university,” 12/26/2018 -01/31/2019, Certificate 25020384, 21 hours.

Scientific activity:

Development of a system of optimal models of the national economy, study of the socio-economic development of Russia during the period of perestroika and market reforms, justification of promising directions for the development and placement of productive forces in the eastern regions of the country, study of the economics of enterprises (companies) in a centralized and market economy.

Disciplines taught:

“Analysis of economic processes in order to predict threats to economic security.”

Publications:

1. “On the goals and measures of healthcare reform in Russia”, journal “Economy Issues” No. 2, 2014
2. “How much does a person’s life cost in Russia?” , magazine “Economic Policy” No. 1, 2014
3. “The main thing is the share of the “knowledge economy””, magazine “World of Changes” No. 1, 2014
4. “The role of agriculture in the socio-economic development of Russia” Monograph. Collection “The future of the Russian food system as assessed by the expert community”
5. “Socio-economic development of Russia: analysis and forecast”, magazine “Problems of Forecasting” No. 4, 2014
6. “Investment credit is the main link in overcoming the decline in the socio-economic development of Russia,” magazine “Money and Credit” No. 5, 2014
7. “Social challenges in our country”, “Strategy” magazine No. 7, 2014
8. “On accelerating the socio-economic development of Russia”, magazine “Actual problems of economics and management” No. 4(4), 2014
9. “The ability not to be outnumbered”, “Energy Effect” bulletin No. 25 (3), 2014
10. “The task is to overcome stagnation and ensure the socio-economic recovery of the country,” Expert magazine No. 28 (907), 2014
11. “Russia needs a policy of accelerated and effective investments,” EKO magazine No. 7, 2014
12. “Current economic situation in Russia: development trajectory and economic policy” (co-authored), “Money and Credit” magazine No. 11, 2014
13. “We need to move to a new economic policy,” magazine “World of New Economics” No. 4, 2014
14. “On the conditions and factors of the country’s socio-economic development”, Journal of Economic Theory No. 1, 2015
15. “Six steps necessary to resume socio-economic growth and overcome existing stagnation, recession and stagflation”, magazine “Money and Credit” No. 2, 2015
16. “On the problem of resuming socio-economic growth and overcoming crisis phenomena”, magazine “World of Changes” Special issue, 2015
17. “Alarm bell: in Russia: the decline in population mortality has stopped,” magazine “Economic Policy” No. 2, 2015
18. “Socio-economic development of Russia”, Bulletin of the Bashkir University No. 2, 2015
19. “Increasing the extremely low life expectancy of the Russian population is the most important urgent task,” magazine “Economic Strategies” No., 2015
20. “How to ensure that the state budget becomes the locomotive of the country’s socio-economic development”, magazine “Economy Issues” No., 2015
21. “Depopulation is resuming in Russia,” Finance and Business magazine, 2015
22. “On healthy life expectancy and retirement age,” EKO magazine, 2015
23. “Reflections on financial fast and furious”, “Money and Credit” magazine, 2015
24. “On the problem of resuming socio-economic growth and overcoming crisis phenomena”, VSKU Bulletin, May 2015.
25. “How can Russia get out of the depressing socio-economic situation and develop at an accelerated pace?”, magazine “Economic Revival of Russia”
26. “Wages in the USSR” (co-authored with V. Mayer) (1959)
27. “Economic and mathematical analysis of the inter-sectoral balance of the USSR” (together with A. Granberg) (1968)
28. “Siberia Firsthand” (together with Z. Ibragimova) (1981)
29. “Soviet economy - a look into the future” (1988)
30. “Socio-economic development of Russia (2003)
31. “Crisis: trouble and chance for Russia” (2009)
32. “The Russian economy is at a crossroads... Choosing a post-crisis space” (2010)

Awards:

"Order of Lenin" (1967),
Medal “For Valiant Labor in Commemoration of the 110th Anniversary of the Birth of V.I. Lenin” (1970),
"Order of the Red Banner of Labor" (1975),
"Bronze medal of VDNKh" (1982),
"Order of the Red Banner of Labor" (1982),
“Medal to them. V.N. Chalomey for active assistance in the development of space programs in the USSR" (1987),
"Silver medal of VDNKh" (1987),
Medal “For the 850th Anniversary of Moscow” (1997),
"Order of Friendship" (2012).

During the years of perestroika, he was an adviser to the General Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee M. S. Gorbachev on economic issues.

Education and scientific career

Graduated from the Moscow State Economic Institute (1955). Member of the CPSU (since 1956). Worked in the State Committee of the Council of Ministers of the USSR on labor and wages (1956-1961). In 1961, he became an employee of the Institute of Economics and Organization of Industrial Production of the Siberian Branch of the Academy of Sciences (IEOPP SB USSR Academy of Sciences), two years later received the degree of Doctor of Economic Sciences, another year - the title of corresponding member of the USSR Academy of Sciences, and in 1964 at the age of 32 years became the director of the IEOPP SB RAS and remained in this position until 1984. Then academician-secretary of the Department of Economics of the USSR Academy of Sciences. He was the chairman of the bureau of the section for the promotion of economic knowledge under the board of the All-Union Society "Knowledge". He was the editor-in-chief of the ECO magazine and a member of the editorial board of the Science and Life magazine. He was the rector of the Academy of Economics under the Government of the Russian Federation (1989-2002), and later the head of the department of “Economic Theory and Politics” of the Academy of Economics under the Government of the Russian Federation (since 2002).

Foreign member of the Bulgarian (1986) and Hungarian Academies of Sciences (1988), corresponding member of the British Academy (1988), honorary professor of the St. Petersburg Academy of Management and Economics. Member of the Academic Council of the RFCA Academy. He was awarded the medal. Leontyev (2004).

Political activity

In November 1987, during a reception organized in his honor by the Armenian Institute of France and the Association of Armenian Veterans, he said:

Statements by Aganbegyan, who at that time held the post of adviser to Mikhail Gorbachev, contradicted the position of the central authorities in this conflict.

Business projects

Chairman of the Board of Directors of the British-Russian joint venture Link, Chairman of the Board of Zenit Bank, initiator of the construction of the Zenit business center in Moscow, which became one of the most famous long-term construction projects in the city. Construction of the business center was stopped after widespread corruption was discovered in connection with the awarding of construction contracts.

Family

Son Ruben (born 1972) is the chairman of the MICEX-RTS exchange, which arose from the merger of the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the RTS Stock Exchange.

Monographs

Wages in the USSR, M., 1959 (together with V.F. Mayer);
What, Where, Why: for schoolchildren about economics. M.: Education, 1981 (co-authored with D. D. Moskvin);
Scientific and technological progress and acceleration of socio-economic development. M.: Economics, 1985;
The economy will become sensitive to renewal. M.: News, 1986;
Soviet economy - a look into the future. M.: Economics, 1988;
In the first echelon of perestroika. Novosibirsk, 1989;
Socio-economic development of Russia // Economics and organization of industrial enterprise. January 2004;
Crisis: Trouble and chance for Russia. AST, Astrel, Harvest, 2009.
The Russian economy is at a crossroads... Choosing a post-crisis space / M.: AST: Astrel; Vladimir: VKT, 2010.

“In 25 years, immeasurably more could have been done”

Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, ex-rector of the Academy of National Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation, and now head of the department of RANEPA Abel Aganbegyan recently celebrated his 85th birthday. He was an economic adviser to Mikhail Gorbachev, his name is widely known in scientific circles, his lectures were listened to by students of the world's leading universities, and the Nobel Committee approached him with a request to recommend candidates for the prize. State leaders listened to his opinion, and few people know that it was with his participation that in the early 1990s, Yegor Gaidar’s team came to govern the state, whose market reforms changed the Russian economy beyond recognition. In an interview with MK, Abel Gezevich spoke about the myths around his personality, about Russia’s market path and how much money the country needs for economic growth.

Despite his 85-year-old age, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Abel Aganbegyan is actively engaged in scientific and teaching activities.

Are you satisfied with the state of the Russian economy as it celebrates your anniversary? The crisis seems to have passed, judging by the assurances of the authorities. Or is that not true?

Let's go back a little. The 2008–2009 crisis in Russia was the deepest of the G20 countries. Our GDP volume has decreased the most, the stock market has collapsed 4 times, budget revenues and industry have decreased, unemployment has risen to a record level, and investments have decreased significantly. Then there was a recovery, and in 2010–2012 we exceeded almost all pre-crisis indicators. However, already in 2013, stagnation began, which continued until 2014, and only then, after the introduction of sanctions and the fall in oil prices, a recession began in 2015–2016, that is, a crisis, a decline. Since the fourth quarter of 2016, it began to be overcome, and now we can state that the period of recession has passed, and from it we have again moved to stagnation - stagnation, depression, fluctuation around zero, in which we will be in 2017 and, apparently , 2018. Worst of all, living standards plummeted during the recession. This has never happened in our country: real incomes decreased by 13%, trade turnover and final consumption of households - by 14%, which is 3 times more than the decrease in production volumes in the country.

- To whom do we owe this crisis and subsequent stagnation - the geopolitical situation, the collapse of oil prices?

It must be said that we created the stagnation in 2013 with our own hands, having received it as a result of incorrect economic policies: this was a year and a half before the annexation of Crimea, sanctions, and lower oil prices. The fact is that we have retained the old economic policy, but the conditions have changed. At the same time, President Vladimir Putin pointed out this problem at the first meeting of the Presidium of the Economic Council in 2014, when he said that the old sources of economic growth have exhausted themselves - if we rely on them, then we will face zero growth. Until now, we have not mobilized new sources, and being dependent on oil prices, we received a serious blow when Saudi Arabia and OPEC initiated a decline in commodity prices in order to confront the United States with its shale production. Having suffered from measures that were not even aimed at us, we nevertheless overcame the recession, but not thanks to the actions of the government, the Ministry of Economic Development or the Central Bank, but also thanks to oil: it rose in price after the “freezing” of its production in OPEC countries and Russia from $39 to $57 per barrel of Urals brand, increasing the volume of Russian exports by almost 30% and ensuring GDP growth of 1.5% in the first half of 2017. The record reduction in inflation - from 15% in 2015 to 4% - today also cannot be considered the merit of the Central Bank, as many people think. Inflation has decreased due to a decrease in domestic demand, and not due to the actions of the regulator with its tight monetary policy, which I consider wrong. When real incomes, trade turnover, and final consumption have decreased by 10–15%, it is quite natural that there is no demand and consumer prices are not rising.

- Of all the problems of the Russian economy, what did you name, which do you consider the key one?

The main problem is the fall in investment, which began in 2013. We have old fixed capital, a worn-out material and technical base of enterprises, which is updated only by 0.7% annually, the remaining 99.3% simply grow old from year to year. Approximately a quarter of all equipment operates beyond its depreciation period, and the average life of machinery and equipment in Russia is 14 years - twice as long as in developed countries. In such conditions, it is becoming increasingly difficult to produce high-quality, competitive products. Therefore, in Russia, economic growth, more than in any other country, is associated with investments that need to be made in production and human capital.

Abel Aganbegyan (left): “It is a myth that I played a crucial role in attracting Yegor Gaidar’s team (right) to govern the country, but I created the organizational conditions for its work.”

Market reform has been carried out in Russia for over 25 years - since the times of the “Gaidar team”. You, who served as Gorbachev’s adviser and generally had great influence at the turn of the 1980s and 1990s, are spoken of as a person who played a crucial role in attracting this team to govern the state. Is this true or a myth?

Myth is the right word. We are sitting in the office (points to the portrait of Yegor Gaidar. - I.D.), which Yegor chose when at the end of 1989 I invited him to the Academy of National Economy. He wanted to create an Economic Policy Research Institute, and I helped organize this institute at the academy. My personal interest was that as rector I needed to update the teaching staff. The average age of professors was more than 60 years, and at the academy we had to start teaching market courses - marketing, corporate finance, international business and others, create programs based on foreign literature, and of all the professors, only one knew English well... I understood that we needed youth, so I looked for people around whom they would mobilize; one of them was Yegor Gaidar in Moscow, the other was Anatoly Chubais in Leningrad. Gaidar brought 66 people with him to his institute at the academy and began developing ways for our country to transition to a market. This is true.

But the fact that I played some role in attracting this team to govern the country is a clear exaggeration. As far as I know, Gaidar met Boris Yeltsin thanks to Gennady Burbulis, with whom he communicated. Boris Nikolaevich liked Yegor Timurovich, and he could not help but like him: he was a great smart guy, an outstanding economist, erudite, analyst, and theorist. He loved books and science, but did not visit factories, farms, or see how the real sector worked. This was his strength and weakness at the same time. He assembled a team of 30-year-old scientists like him; they traveled to countries of the former socialist camp, for example to Poland, which made a successful transition to a market, and studied foreign experience. Scientifically, Yegor Gaidar was superior to me; I had no influence on his scientific research, but I created organizational conditions for his work, financed his institute from the academy, and housed his employees. I remember what I said to the business executives and employees of the academy: “If I ask you and you don’t do something, I will reprimand you, but if Yegor Timurovich asks and you don’t do it, I will fire you.” Because something new cannot arise unless it is supported.

From the standpoint of today, how do you assess the work of Yegor Gaidar at the head of the government, carrying out reforms?

Very high. He did the most important thing - he saved Russia, which was falling apart before our eyes. Gaidar’s government was called the “kamikaze government,” because there were no people willing to rule the country at that time, it was a deadly occupation... But Yegor was a very brave man, for all his gentleness and intelligence. He made a lot of mistakes, as we understand in hindsight, but he was in government for only 11 months, so blaming him for what happened in the country over the next 25 years is ridiculous. By the way, the biggest collapse of the economy occurred not in 1992, under Yegor Gaidar, who was removed from his post by populists from the Supreme Council, but in 1993, under Viktor Chernomyrdin. Then Boris Yeltsin turned again to Gaidar, and he again sorted everything out, and then again became unnecessary, as often happens.

- Could you name the main achievements and failures of Russia during this 25-year market path?

The main achievement is that there can be no return to the old ways: we have private property, goods in stores, we can travel abroad... But over these 25 years, immeasurably more could have been done. During Russia's transition to a market economy, the country faced a transformation crisis, the lowest point of which occurred in 1998–1999. If we compare it with the crisis year of 1989, gross domestic product (GDP) then decreased by 1.8 times, industry by 2.2 times, investment in fixed capital by almost 5 times, and real income by 1.9 times. A serious problem was the depopulation of the population, and the mortality rate exceeded the birth rate in some years by 950 thousand people!

After this, a rise began, but not the entire population benefited from it, but mainly the rich. As a result, we got a huge difference between the lower and upper strata of the population in terms of welfare. If in Soviet times the richest 10% lived 3 times better than the poorest 10%, now it is 15.7 times better. Meanwhile, in Western Europe this difference is 8–10 times, in social democratic countries - 6–8 times, and in Japan - 5 times.

Such a dramatic income gap is a big failure. In fact, after the 1990s, we finished reforming, and we never switched to a market economy. We do not have capital funds and “long-term” money, problems with the labor market, land, and tax system. Russia today is a state oligarchic transitional mixed economy, where 70% of the gross product is produced on the basis of state property.

Let's talk about science. Is Russian economic thought valued in the world? Do any Russians have a chance in the foreseeable future of winning the Nobel Prize in Economics - or will the Soviet-era achievement of your teacher, Leonid Kantorovich, remain the only precedent?

In my opinion, our economic science in the world ranking is now below average. We do not have outstanding organizations like the National Bureau of Economic Research in the United States. Although we are on par with world leaders in international economic research and forecasting. For example, the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences is one of three centers in the world that makes global economic forecasts.

As for the Nobel Prize, besides Kantorovich there were three candidates from Russia who, in my opinion, deserved it more than the laureates of recent years. The first is Valentin Novozhilov: he developed the problem of optimal solutions in economics. His works are highly valued in the world. The second is Yegor Gaidar: his development of ways of transition from socialism to capitalism, that is, from an administrative-planning system to a market economy, fully deserved a Nobel Prize. The third could be awarded to IMEMO for their world forecast. However, now the Nobel Prize is sometimes awarded to people whom 90% of major scientists have not heard of, no one studies from their monographs, and they do not open new directions in science.

USSR, Russia Russia Scientific field: Place of work: Alma mater: Awards and prizes:

Abel Gezevich Aganbegyan(Armenian Աբել Գյոզի Աղանբեկյան ; genus. October 8, Tiflis) - Soviet and Russian scientist-economist, Doctor of Economic Sciences (), corresponding member of the Academy of Sciences (), academician of the USSR Academy of Sciences (), rector of the Academy of National Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation (-).

He was awarded the medal. Leontyev (2004).

Awards and titles: 1967 Order of Lenin 1970 Medal "For Valiant Labor in Commemoration of the 100th Anniversary of the Birth of V.I. Lenin" 1972 Order of the Red Banner of Labor 1974 Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences 1980 Honorary Doctor of the University of Lodz (Poland) 1986 Honorary Doctor of the Higher School of Civil Servants in Barcelona (ESERP) 1986 Corresponding Member of the British Academy of Sciences 2012 "Order of Friendship"

Business projects

Chairman of the Board of Directors of the British-Russian joint venture Link, Chairman of the Board of Zenit Bank, initiator of the construction of the Zenit business center in Moscow, which has become one of the most famous “long-term construction projects” in the city. Construction of the business center was stopped after widespread corruption was discovered in connection with the awarding of construction contracts. He is a member of the collegial advisory body - the Board of Trustees of the NFP "Lukoil-Garant".

Family

Daughter Ekaterina (born in 1959) lives in the USA.

Monographs

Wages in the USSR, M., 1959 (together with V.F. Mayer);
What, Where, Why: for schoolchildren about economics. M.: Education, 1981 (co-authored with D. D. Moskvin);
Scientific and technological progress and acceleration of socio-economic development. M.: Economics, 1985;
The economy will become sensitive to renewal. M.: News, 1986;
Soviet economy - a look into the future. M.: Economics, 1988;
In the first echelon of perestroika. Novosibirsk, 1989;
Socio-economic development of Russia // Economics and organization of industrial enterprise. January 2004;
Crisis: Trouble and chance for Russia. AST, Astrel, Harvest, 2009.
The Russian economy is at a crossroads... Choosing a post-crisis space / M.: AST: Astrel; Vladimir: VKT, 2010.

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Notes

Literature

Who is who in Russia and neighboring countries.-M.: New Time, 1993

Excerpt characterizing Aganbegyan, Abel Gezevich

“P.S. Donnez moi des nouvelles de votre frere et de sa charmante petite femme.”
[All of Moscow is talking about the war. One of my two brothers is already abroad, the other is with the guard, which is marching to the border. Our dear sovereign leaves St. Petersburg and, it is assumed, intends to expose his precious existence to the accidents of war. May God grant that the Corsican monster, which disturbs the tranquility of Europe, may be cast down by the angel whom the Almighty, in His goodness, has made sovereign over us. Not to mention my brothers, this war has deprived me of one of the relationships closest to my heart. I'm talking about young Nikolai Rostov; who, despite his enthusiasm, could not bear inaction and left the university to join the army. I confess to you, dear Marie, that, despite his extreme youth, his departure for the army was a great grief for me. In the young man I told you about last summer, there is so much nobility, true youth, which you see so rarely in our age among twenty-year-olds! He especially has so much candor and heart. He is so pure and full of poetry that my relationship with him, despite all its fleetingness, was one of the sweetest joys of my poor heart, which had already suffered so much. Someday I will tell you our farewell and everything that was said at parting. All this is still too fresh... Ah! dear friend, you are happy that you do not know these burning pleasures, these burning sorrows. You are happy because the latter are usually stronger than the former. I know very well that Count Nikolai is too young to become anything other than a friend to me. But this sweet friendship, this so poetic and so pure relationship was the need of my heart. But enough about that.
“The main news occupying all of Moscow is the death of old Count Bezukhy and his inheritance. Imagine, three princesses received some small amount, Prince Vasily received nothing, and Pierre is the heir to everything and, moreover, is recognized as the legitimate son and therefore Count Bezukhy and the owner of the largest fortune in Russia. They say that Prince Vasily played a very nasty role in this whole story, and that he left for St. Petersburg very embarrassed. I confess to you that I understand very poorly all these matters regarding spiritual wills; I only know that since the young man, whom we all knew under the name simply Pierre, became Count Bezukhy and the owner of one of the best fortunes in Russia, I am amused by observing the change in tone of the mothers who have brides’ daughters, and the young ladies themselves in attitude towards this gentleman, who (in parentheses it should be said) always seemed very insignificant to me. Since for two years now everyone has been amusing themselves with finding suitors for me, whom I mostly do not know, the marriage chronicle of Moscow makes me Countess Bezukhova. But you understand that I don’t want this at all. Speaking of marriages. Do you know that recently everyone’s aunt Anna Mikhailovna entrusted me, under the greatest secret, with the plan to arrange your marriage. This is nothing more or less than the son of Prince Vasily, Anatole, whom they want to settle down by marrying him to a rich and noble girl, and the parents’ choice fell on you. I don’t know how you look at this matter, but I considered it my duty to warn you. He is said to be very good and a big rake. That's all I could find out about him.
But he will talk. I’m finishing my second piece of paper, and my mother has sent for me to go to dinner with the Apraksins.
Read the mystical book I am sending you; it has been a huge success with us. Although there are things in it that are difficult for the weak human mind to understand, it is an excellent book; reading it calms and elevates the soul. Farewell. My respect to your father and my greetings to m lle Bourrienne. I hug you from the bottom of my heart. Julia.
PS. Let me know about your brother and his lovely wife.]
The princess thought, smiling thoughtfully (at which her face, illuminated by her radiant eyes, was completely transformed), and suddenly got up, walking heavily, and moved to the table. She took out the paper, and her hand quickly began to walk over it. This is what she wrote in response:
“Chere et excellente ami.” Votre lettre du 13 m"a cause une grande joie. Vous m"aimez donc toujours, ma poetique Julie.
L"absence, dont vous dites tant de mal, n"a donc pas eu son influenza habituelle sur vous. Vous vous plaignez de l"absence - que devrai je dire moi, si j"osais me plaindre, privee de tous ceux qui me sont chers? Ah l si nous n"avions pas la religion pour nous consoler, la vie serait bien triste. Pourquoi me supposez vous un regard severe, quand vous me parlez de votre affection pour le jeune homme? Sous ce rapport je ne suis rigide que pour moi . Je comprends ces sentiments chez les autres et si je ne puis approuver ne les ayant jamais ressentis, je ne les condamiene pas. Me parait seulement que l "amour chretien, l "amour du prochain, l "amour pour ses ennemis est plus meritoire , plus doux et plus beau, que ne le sont les sentiments que peuvent inspire les beaux yeux d"un jeune homme a une jeune fille poetique et aimante comme vous.
“La nouvelle de la mort du comte Earless nous est parvenue avant votre lettre, et mon pere en a ete tres affecte. Il dit que c"etait avant derienier representant du grand siècle, et qu"a present c"est son tour; mais qu"il fera son possible pour que son tour vienne le plus tard possible. Que Dieu nous garde de ce terrible malheur! Je ne puis partager votre opinion sur Pierre que j"ai connu enfant. Il me paraissait toujours avoir un coeur excellent, et c"est la qualite que j"estime le plus dans les gens. Quant a son heritage et au role qu"y a joue le prince Basile, c"est bien triste pour tous les deux. Ah! chere amie, la parole de notre divin Sauveur qu"il est plus aise a un hameau de passer par le trou d"une aiguille, qu"il ne l "est a un riche d"entrer dans le royaume de Dieu, cette parole est terriblement vraie; je plains le prince Basile et je regrette encore davantage Pierre. Si jeune et accable de cette richesse, que de tentations n"aura t il pas a subir! Si on me demandait ce que je desirerais le plus au monde, ce serait d"etre plus pauvre que le plus pauvre des mendiants. Mille graces, chere amie, pour l "ouvrage que vous m" envoyez, et qui fait si grande fureur chez vous. Cependant, puisque vous me dites qu"au milieu de plusurs bonnes choses il y en a d"autres que la faible conception humaine ne peut atteindre, il me parait assez inutile de s"occuper d"une lecture intelligible, qui par la meme ne pourrait etre d"aucun fruit. Je n"ai jamais pu comprendre la passion qu"ont certaines personnes de s"embrouiller l"entendement, en s"attachant a des livres mystiques, qui n"elevent que des doutes dans leurs esprits, exaltant leur imagination et leur donnent un caractere d"exageration tout a fait contraire a la simplicite chretnne. Lisons les Apotres et l"Evangile. Ne cherchons pas a penetrer ce que ceux la renferment de mysterux, car, comment oserions nous, miserables pecheurs que nous sommes, pretendre a nous initier dans les secrets terribles et sacres de la Providence, tant que nous portons cette depouille charienelle, qui eleve entre nous et l"Eterienel un voile impenetrable? Borienons nous donc a etudr les principes sublimes que notre divin Sauveur nous a laisse pour notre conduite ici bas; cherchons a nous y conformer et a les suivre, persuadons nous que moins nous donnons d "essor a notre faible esprit humain et plus il est agreable a Dieu, Qui rejette toute science ne venant pas de Lui; que moins nous cherchons a approfondir ce qu "il Lui a plu de derober a notre connaissance,et plutot II nous en accordera la decouverte par Son divin esprit.

The “Godfather” of the current ministers of the government’s economic bloc explained how his “children” drove Russia into a deep crisis

The crisis in which the domestic economy found itself began back in 2008 and gradually developed, leading the country to its current state. It will get even worse, and this cannot be avoided. However, even now “there is light at the end of the tunnel,” says Abel Aganbegyan, one of the theorists of perestroika and ex-adviser to Mikhail Gorbachev. Having criticized the economic situation in the country at his Kazan lecture at the KFU MBA site, which was attended by a BUSINESS Online correspondent, the eminent academician nevertheless supported the government plan announced recently, and also named five specific anti-crisis measures that need to be implemented right now .

KUDRIN NO LONGER SPEAKS ABOUT “QUIET ISLAND”

“Academician Aganbegyan” sounds like the name of a dinosaur, like the name of a scientific theory, like the name of a star. He is everything at once - a monster of perestroika, a theorist of a market economy, an academician from the distant Soviet times, an adviser Mikhail Gorbachev, ideologist of market reforms, teacher of almost everyone who has sat in the Russian government since perestroika and who is sitting now. They all went through him - either as students, or as graduate students, or, conversely, had the honor of inviting him as opponents for candidate and doctoral defenses.

Abel Aganbegyan he himself announced this yesterday to those who came to his Kazan lecture, which brought together businessmen and economics teachers. He's proud of it. “All of them,” he said, “are qualified specialists, honest and not rich people.” "Dinosaur from Economics" performed in a small hall of about 50 people, three-quarters full, in the building of the Graduate School of MBA of the Kazan Federal University. Abel Gezevich sat at the table, in the corner, near the window, almost invisible from the back rows, and spoke without any microphone.They listened to him carefully. Some took notes. Some - into notepads kindly provided by the organizers, others - into voice recorders.

The eminent academician was expected to answer two classic Russian questions that we have been asking ourselves for one and a half hundred years now and can never answer unambiguously and definitively: who is to blame and what to do? The former adviser to the President of the USSR answered both. The answers were clear, clear, understandable, perhaps even obvious. It was important to hear them from a person who is personally responsible for the beginning of market transformations in the country and who personally taught and educated many of those who are leading these transformations now.

“We climbed into the hole ourselves,” Aganbegyan said. - Crimea, Ukraine, Western sanctions - this is not the main thing. They just pushed. This is no more than a third. And two-thirds of the way we climbed into the hole ourselves.” It all started, as it turned out, in 2008, with the global crisis. Until then everything was going well. “Many people made noise then that the crisis would not affect us, that we had something like a quiet island,” the academician recalled. - Kudrin, for example, said. Now he doesn’t say that anymore.” In fact, the crisis hit Russia not less, but more strongly than in other countries. “We had the deepest crisis among all developed countries,” said the eminent economist. Everything fell: production, budget, market, personal income - all parameters of the economy fell into the abyss. The conditions for economic growth have changed dramatically and permanently. Since then, oil and gas prices have not risen. Since 2008, oil has been hovering around $100, sometimes rising, sometimes falling, but if you take into account dollar inflation, it has not risen at all. And oil and gas make up 70% of our exports. In the 2000s, about $2 trillion came into the country, of which 1.5 trillion. - this is a “gift,” as Aganbegyan put it, free money due to rising energy prices. 50% of the growth of our economy comes from oil and gas. 2/3 of all investments are also oil and gas. “We have lost the source of economic growth,” the academician formulated.

“CAPITAL IS THE BLOOD OF THE ECONOMY”

The fall in oil and gas prices is the first reason for the crisis that began in 2008 and has never been overcome. The second reason is capital outflow. Before the crisis, money came into the country, but after the crisis they began to flee. $600 billion left the country in 7 years. Exports fell by 60% due to falling oil prices, and we lost $234 billion. And also, Aganbegyan recalled, we had to support the ruble, which was trying to fall. $211 billion, according to his calculations, went to maintain the ruble exchange rate. We lost $500 billion during the crisis of 2008-2009, 600 billion after the crisis, that is, over the past 6 years - $1.1 trillion. Before the crisis, GDP was $2 trillion, now it is $1.1 trillion.

It’s not even worth explaining how great a loss this is. Almost doubled in six years! “Capital is the lifeblood of the economy,” said Abel Gezevich. - Imagine that you have been pumped out of 2 liters of blood out of the 5 that you have. You will remain alive, but you will have difficulty even walking, and there is no question of running.” Capital outflow is associated with external debts. Of these, only 40% are state-owned, the rest are private companies. Gazprom alone has $47 billion, Rosneft has 45 billion, Lukoil has 10 billion, etc. “They borrowed irresponsibly,” stated Aganbegyan. Only in 2012 they borrowed 100 billion, in 2013 - the same amount. Western banks willingly gave. As a result, 728 billion have accumulated, of which 200 billion plus interest must be paid this year. And then there are sanctions, and it is no longer possible to refinance.This is capital outflow.

OH WHERE ARE YOU, RESOURCE...

The result was a massive reduction in investment. In 2009 they fell by 17%. This is a lot, the academician believes. Along with investment, economic growth rates also collapsed. In subsequent years, the situation was improved; in 2012, investments were even 3% higher than in 2008, but the growth stopped there. Investments have not been growing for 6 years, the lecturer stated. In 2012, even before any sanctions, there was a sharp drop in investment. And economic growth depends on investment by 80%. Investments, Aganbegyan recalled, push the economy twice: firstly, immediately, for example, investments in construction lead to design, road construction, the building materials industry, etc., and secondly, after three to four years, when what has already been built included in the economy.

Since investments were ordered to live for a long time, it would seem that existing funds could be used. If only they were. But there are almost none of them in Russia! Growth can only be achieved by new, modern funds. This happened during the crisis of 1998, when the industry left over from the Soviet Union came to life - by no means the most advanced - and stretched the country. But now everything is much worse, 22% of funds have already exhausted their resources. This is not a source of growth - it is ballast that “must be thrown away.” Of these, 26% are various machines and equipment, 70% are transport infrastructure. Every year, 0.7% of funds drop out altogether. In the 7 years since the last crisis, 5% of the funds have dropped out, and the rest have become 7 years older!

At the same time, the funds are almost not updated - there are no investments. Given their state, there is nothing to talk about development. “It is impossible to develop at the expense of internal sources,” stated Aganbegyan. - The only hope is an increase in oil prices. There’s nowhere else to get more investment.” The academician called the structure of our exports ugly. 86 - 87% of exports are fuel, raw materials, materials. Only a little over 10% are finished products. And the situation now is such that not only prices for raw materials are falling, but also prices for finished products are rising, which further aggravates the situation - there is less and less money, and it is becoming more and more expensive to buy what you need.

And here is the result: already in 2013, stagnation began in the economy. “We made it with our own hands,” repeated Abel Gezevich, “even before Ukraine, before any sanctions.” In 2014, investment fell by 3%, and from the fourth quarter of 2014 we entered a recession. Moreover, inflation has sharply accelerated, the reason for which Aganbegyan sees in our own anti-sanctions imposed against the West, which led to an increase in food prices by 17% last year alone.

“THIS IS A MOCKERY OF PEOPLE!”

The hole into which we fell was diligently deepened by the Central Bank. The key rate has been raised over the years from 5.5% to 17%. Aganbegyan called the latter a “forbidden bet.” “The economy has stopped,” he stated.At the same time, the Central Bank also poorly regulated the foreign exchange market. In reality, he contributed in every possible way to the growth of the dollar and the collapse of the ruble. For example, the bank reserve for foreign currency accounts in Russia is less than for ruble accounts. Moreover, the Central Bank gives ruble loans to banks, which are immediately used to purchase foreign currency. There are a lot of rubles on the market, there is a shortage of foreign currency - so you have the depreciation of the ruble.

The interest rate of the Central Bank, the academician reminds, is a multi-purpose weapon. It is not only to regulate inflation. It is also to keep the economy working. The Central Bank now uses the rate solely to curb inflation, but at the same time the economy is standing still. Yesterday, just during Aganbegyan’s lecture, a message came that the Central Bank had condescended to the demands of the economy and lowered the key rate. On 2%. Up to 15%. “This is a mockery of people!” - commented Abel Gezevich and named the critical rate for the current conditions - 8%. Anything higher is the death of the economy.

But what will happen to the economy if the Central Bank, in its heroic fight against inflation, still drops to 8% is a question that even Academician Aganbegyan has no answer to. He predicts for this year a decline in the economy of 3 - 5%, a drop in investments by 10 - 15% and repeats once again: “Everything is done with your own hands!”

FIVE ANTI-CRISIS MEASURES FROM ACADEMICIAN AGANBEGYAN

This time, the academician noted, unlike 2008, the government at least realized that there was a crisis. Igor Shuvalov at Davos he described the situation as even worse than it actually is. “We began to scare ourselves,” the speaker said. However, there really is something to be afraid of. Gold and foreign exchange reserves fell sharply by $150 billion - and these 150 billion were simply thrown away. 380 billion left. “This is a lot,” said the academician, “if you spend it sparingly, three years may be enough.” There is no panic in the country or in the markets, unemployment is growing slowly, the rating of the head of state is high and does not intend to fall.Therefore, the government's anti-crisis program has a chance of success. The academician cautiously called this program “good” and noted as “quite reasonable measures” the intention to support small and medium-sized businesses and give money to banks, enterprises and regions. However, he immediately formulated his own demands for the anti-crisis program, which do not really correlate with the praise for the government program.

Aganbegyan proposed five measures that could save the domestic economy at this stage.

- We need to lower the key rateToat. The critical value, as already mentioned, is 8%. Anything higher will kill the economy.

It is also necessary to take currency regulation seriously; it is time for the Central Bank to stop collapsing the ruble and start supporting it.

We must fight inflation. But, Aganbegyan reminds, the Central Bank is not capable of this, because inflation in our country is not of a monetary nature at all, but depends primarily on tariffs - for resources, for transport, etc. That is, inflation is generated by the government. For example, the government recently reduced the tariff for the use of Russian Railways infrastructure by suburban passenger companies by four times. Moreover, it awarded “compensation from the budget” in the amount of 25 billion rubles. At the same time, Russian Railways increases its own tariffs - from 10% to 13.4%. “Why are you raising fares when they gave you a gift? - the academician is amazed. - The state must protect people. He has no other goals. The state should not protect the interests of Russian Railways, but the interests of the people!”

It is necessary to cancel the anti-sanctions introduced by the government in response to Western ones. “We are already protected by a weak ruble,” the academician explained. It is not so easy for Western manufacturers to sell us something now - their products have risen sharply in price in our market due to the fall of the ruble. “They won’t throw any of our producers out of the market,” stated Abel Gezevich.

Investments need to be accelerated. Every year, Aganbegyan said, they need to be increased by 10%. Where can I get the money if he himself said that there is no hope except for the rise in oil prices? In banks. There, according to the academician’s calculations, 67 trillion is hidden in assets. rubles, which is 2.5 times more than all government money. Abel Gezevich, however, did not explain how the banks could be forced to fork out money. Investments should go to technological renewal, to the construction of new high-tech industries, to the creation of modern transport infrastructure, to housing construction and, most importantly, to the knowledge economy, that is, to human capital. Our knowledge economy is 15%, in Europe - 35%, and in the USA - 40%. These numbers, in fact, show why the United States is in the lead and is not going to give up its place to anyone.

"WE HAVE NO OTHER GOVERNMENT"

After the lecture, “BUSINESS Online” asked Academician Aganbegyan the inevitable question that was on everyone’s tongue:

You unexpectedly supported the government's anti-crisis program. But how did it happen that this very government, these qualified, honest and poor people, as you yourself described them, brought the economy of our country to the brink? And do you believe that these people are capable of leading the country out of the crisis? And what did you mean when you spoke about supporting small businesses? After all, the main problems of small businesses are taxes.

Small business, if it is simplified, had a turnover limit of 60 million, and now - 100 million. The average was also raised. Just this. I understand that these measures are not enough. As for the government... You know, one day the party functionary Polikarpov, who oversaw the writers' union, complained to Stalin: “Comrade Stalin, I don’t know what to do: Sholokhov drinks, Fadeev drinks, Count Tolstoy behaves like an aristocrat, denunciations are written, sleep with other people’s wives - what to do?” To which Stalin replied: “I have no other writers for you.” We have no other government. What do you expect from me? Do you think that they all need to be replaced so that it takes them six months to figure out whose name is what?..

There are quite qualified people in the government, maybe some of them need to be replaced, but this is not my prerogative. If these people are forced to do something, they will do it. It all depends on the program... I once came to the regional committee in Soviet times, they demanded something from me, and I objected. They tell me: “Then we’ll rub your nose.” I ask: “What do you mean, ‘rubbing your nose’?” They tell me: “We’ll hit your nose against the wall twice, then you’ll understand.” It’s the same here: life will force you to do it. And, if you remember, the same people in 2008 quite quickly brought us out of that crisis.

- One more question: is it possible to turn towards a mobilization economy? What is Glazyev promoting?

I think this would be bad if by mobilization economics you mean administrative economics. Going to direct orders, abandoning the market, and dictating prices is the way back.

There were few questions at all. The academician presented his opinion consistently, logically and clearly - in general, there was nothing to ask about. The road to the hole, which we dug with our own hands, became clearly visible in the bright light shed by the explanations of the hero of perestroika. And to the main question, why we took this road, the “dinosaur” himself hardly knows the answer. And if he knows, he won’t say.

Reference

Abel Aganbegyan- economist, academician of the USSR Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences, adviser to the General Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee Mikhail Gorbachev during the years of perestroika.

Graduated from the Moscow State Economic Institute (1955).

Doctor of Economic Sciences (1963), Academician of the USSR Academy of Sciences (1974).

1956 - 1961 - worked in the State Committee of the Council of Ministers of the USSR on labor and wages.

1961 - employee of the Institute of Economics and Organization of Industrial Production of the Siberian Branch of the Academy of Sciences (IEOPP SB AS USSR).

1964 - 1984 - Director of the IEOPP SB RAS.

1989 - 2002 - Rector of the Academy of National Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation.

Since 2002 - Head of the Department of Economic Theory and Politics of the Academy of Economics under the Government of the Russian Federation.

Foreign member of the Bulgarian (1986) and Hungarian Academies of Sciences (1988), corresponding member of the British Academy (1988), honorary professor at the St. Petersburg University of Management and Economics.

Awarded the medal. Leontyev (2004).

Son Ruben(born in 1972) - General Director of the Otkrytie holding, daughter Catherine(born 1959) lives in the USA.